Seeking a new circle of leadership
08, May 2008
Author: Barbara MacDougall
BARBARA MCDOUGALL
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
April 22, 2008 at 7:45 AM EDT
Canada belongs to more multilateral organizations than any other country in the world. Partly a function of geography (bordering on three oceans and the United States), history (French and English), resource riches and a dependence on international trade, there are many reasons for Canada to rush to the multilateral table. The relevance of any particular organization ebbs and flows, but Canada must at all times be aware that international connectedness and co-operation are critical to our interests.
By far the most significant international group for Canada is the Group of Eight. Its membership in what began as an informal grouping of the world's most powerful economies was in one way a fortuitous accident, but its legitimacy among this elite was earned and recognized. History and culture matter, and they certainly led to Canada's acceptance at this particular high table.
As part of the victorious Second World War alliance, Canada seized the moment and partook in the establishment of all major postwar institutions: the United Nations and its constellation of specialized agencies, the Bretton Woods agreement that laid the foundation for international banking, financial and trade organizations, and NATO. Thus, in the 1970s, when what was first envisioned as the G5 (the U.S., U.K., France, West Germany and Japan) was in its early stages, it was not unnatural that Canada (and Italy) be included. The fortuitous part was that Gerald Ford insisted on having a North American "buddy" with him at the table of what became the G7, before the entry of Russia in the 1990s.
By being present at the G7's creation and by dint of hard work, Canada has been in a position to protect the interests of our relatively small country - small in the sense that, without the G8, we would have had no capacity to influence trends and trading partners (even if at the margin) on matters crucial to our economic and political well-being.
In today's harsh world of increasing globalization and international competitiveness, ominous signs are appearing. A significant shift in economic power is under way that may not be to our benefit unless we're able to seize the moment as we did more than half a century ago.
A rising tide lifts all boats, and the spread of prosperity, uneven though it may be, to countries such as India, China, Mexico and Brazil is a positive change. But Canada cannot afford to allow the potential clout of the new economies to leave us standing outside the corridors of power. A new, more inclusive circle of leadership must be developed, and Canada must help to broker this power shift or run the risk of irrelevance.
There have been a number of vain efforts to transform the G8 into a bigger club. This is not necessarily the best starting point, at least based on the evidence so far. For one thing, small clubs - by definition, the most exclusive - are the most sought after, and the current members of the G8 are reluctant to give up the intimacy of their special relationship. This is not as unreasonable as it sounds. In the event of a crisis, eight leaders who have come to know each other well can quickly establish a common strategy.
And larger is not necessarily better. The expansion of NATO, for example, has not led to more effectiveness or collegiality, even though the members of the North Atlantic alliance are bound by treaty and have a single purpose. Thus, early efforts to transform the G8 into a group called the Leaders 20 were doomed from the start. Grafting 12 new members of various shapes and stages of development onto the existing eight would make a cumbersome grouping at best and a dysfunctional one at worst.
There is currently an effort, also less than enthusiastic, to form the G8+5, adding a grouping of five "emerging" economies - China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa - that meet the G8 on an occasional and, unhappily, a patronizing basis. The internal inconsistencies that have resulted have left the +5 dissatisfied and the G8 distracted. The weaknesses will be exacerbated later this spring when the G8 meets in Japan, a country that desperately wants the G8+5 to go away. Simple institutional tinkering, therefore, does not look to be a solution - not yet, in any case.
But there is a real possibility that a separate G5 caucus (made up of the grudgingly welcomed guests of the G8) may well emerge, with the danger that friction will divide the two groups. The objective, after all, is to find the means to solve common problems (of which there are many of a global nature) by dialogue and consensus.
As a massive supplier of critical natural resources to the rapidly industrializing countries, Canada can and should have a role to play. It is in our interest to keep the international trading system open and well-regulated. On climate change, we have much in common with other large states, although our small population and northern outlook set us apart from the likes of Brazil, China and India.
It is absolutely in Canada's interest that the rapidly developing countries continue to grow and prosper, and that their growth be accompanied by an increasing role for them in leaders' circles. The role of a widening group of leaders will be indispensable if global deadlocks are to be avoided or resolved. New rule-making institutions may well be needed, and a new leaders' group will have to be created. While retaining G8 membership and ensuring that the G8 process continues to function, Canada should work with the emerging powers to help shape this new circle of leadership.
Canada should not undermine the impact of existing organizations where we are already participants. An alternate structure can and should be built. Canada's interest is to be in the forefront of developing new mechanisms, working with G8 colleagues on the one hand and the rising powers on the other. Otherwise, we will be left behind and our priorities neglected.
Barbara McDougall, former secretary of state for external affairs, is an adviser at Aird & Berlis LLP in Toronto.
Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080422.wcog822/BNStory/specialComment
